Bitcoin (BTC) recorded one of its strongest quarters in the past three years in Q1, but analysts warn this could lead to significant volatility in the lead-up to the Bitcoin halving.

“Be prepared for some screwy price action as we head into the halving,” crypto analyst Phoenix Desmond told his 11,700 X followers in a post on April 3.

Bitcoin experienced a 64% price increase during the first quarter of 2024, its third-best quarter over the past three years, as per Kaiko Research data.

Bitcoin’s price was $44,172 on Jan. 1, and by the quarter’s end, it had reached $71,255.

Source: Kaiko Research

However, Desmond argues that the consistent pattern of outperforming price performance in weekly and monthly closings signals unprecedented market conditions.

“Never before have we seen such a strong weekly, monthly, and quarterly close above previous ATH only to retrace so far so fast,” Desmond declared.

In the last two weekly closes, on March 17 and March 31, Bitcoin surged by 6.09%, climbing from $67,234 to $71,333, according to Yahoo Finance data.

Bitcoin’s price over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap

The Bitcoin halving is set for April 20, with speculation arising about whether it could trigger further upward movement in the second quarter of 2024 due to the expected supply shock.

However, investor sentiment regarding the short-term direction of Bitcoin’s price seems to be neutral.


Over the past 24 hours, liquidations on both short and long positions remained fairly balanced, at $16.27 million and $16.77 million, respectively, as per CoinGlass data.

Short and long positions remain fairly balanced for Bitcoin over the past 24 hours. Source: CoinGlass

If Bitcoin’s price rises by just 1.5% to $66,687, approximately $57.08 million will be liquidated.

If it goes the other way, dropping by just 1% to $65,013, $35.14 million will be liquidated.

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Popular pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital believes that Bitcoin may not follow the same trajectory as it did in the previous quarter, and at best, it could see resistance levels close to the all-time highs of the first quarter.

“BTC may consolidate between $60k & $70k for the coming weeks going into the Halving and beyond,” Rekt Capital said in a March 3 post on X.

While the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Jan. 11 by several of the world’s largest asset management firms has heightened interest and speculation around Bitcoin’s price, some foresee a potential narrative shift.

“Most likely not Bitcoin,” founder of MN trading consultancy Michael van de Poppe told his 710,600 X followers in a post on April 4:

“Pre-Halving Bitcoin interest, Spot ETF launch causing additional liquidity. This is slowing down, back to normal price levels, after which a new narrative is likely going to surge.”

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