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Grayscale’s GBTC Will Run Out of Bitcoin in 96 Days


Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have significantly impacted the crypto market since their debut in January. Even marker observers have been impressed with the record performance of these financial products.

However, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), one of the prominent products, has experienced consistent outflows, sparking concerns about its future trajectory.

Grayscale’s GBTC Bitcoin Reserve Depletes

Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analytics firm, has forecasted that GBTC could deplete its Bitcoin reserves within the next 96 days if the current rate of redemptions persists.

Since its conversion into a spot Bitcoin ETF in January, Grayscale’s Bitcoin balance has plummeted by 266,470 BTC. This marks a significant decline from its initial holding of approximately 620,000 BTC.

The downward trend is attributed to consistent outflows from GBTC averaging 25,900 BTC per week.

“Grayscale started the year holding 618,280 BTC for their Bitcoin Trust GBTC. They now hold only 356,440 BTC. If they carry on like this, there’s only 14 weeks until they run out for good,” analysts at Arkham Intelligence remarked.

Grayscale GBTC Bitcoin Holdings
Grayscale’s GBTC Bitcoin Holdings. Source: CryptoQuant

Grayscale is exploring various initiatives to counteract this outflow trend. Some of these include introducing a mini fund providing a cost-effective alternative to GBTC. Sonnenshein also mentioned the firm’s plan to reduce its 1.5% fee, which stands in stark contrast to competitors’ rates ranging from 0.2% to 0.5%.

“We have seen this in countless other exposures, countless other markets, you name it, where typically when products are earlier in their lifecycle, when they’re new to be introduced, these tend to be higher. And, as those markets mature, and as those funds grow, those fees tend to come down, and we expect the same to be true of GBTC,” Sonnenshein said.

Top crypto platforms in the US | March 2024

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Conclusion

In conclusion, the depletion of Grayscale’s GBTC Bitcoin reserves is a concerning trend that could lead to the company running out of Bitcoin within the next 96 days if the current rate of redemptions continues. This significant decline in Bitcoin holdings from approximately 620,000 BTC to 356,440 BTC is attributed to consistent outflows averaging 25,900 BTC per week. Grayscale is exploring various initiatives to counteract this trend, including introducing a mini fund as a cost-effective alternative to GBTC and potentially reducing its 1.5% fee. The future trajectory of GBTC and its impact on the crypto market remains uncertain as the company navigates these challenges.

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